Author: Larry Gilmore           Published: 12/12/2025  Lgilmore+clearblugroup.com@mg.msgsndr.org

Economic Update

Federal Reserve outlook

  • Policy setting: The Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25 bps in December to a 3.50–3.75% target range, marking a third consecutive reduction in 2025 amid cooling job growth and still‑elevated inflation readings CNBC CBS News.
  • Projections and guidance: The December Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) implies a slower path of future easing with only limited additional cuts in 2026–2027, highlighting internal disagreement and the need for more evidence of balanced risks CNBC Federal Reserve Board Federal Reserve Board.
  • Context and risk: The year ended with delayed official data due to the government shutdown, pushing the Fed to rely on alternative indicators and reinforcing its cautious, data‑dependent stance into early 2026 CBS News CBS News.

Labor market trends

  • Cooling momentum: Private payroll indicators showed employers shedding jobs in November, underscoring headwinds after a year of decelerating monthly job gains CBS News.
  • Sector divergence: Manufacturing shed nearly 100,000 jobs over 2025, even as weekly jobless claims hovered near multi‑year lows—illustrating conflicting signals beneath the headline figures PlasticsToday.
  • Demand signals: Job postings fell 5% month‑over‑month in November and 4.4% year‑over‑year, consistent with broader employer caution at year‑end LinkedIn.
  • Benchmarks: Forecast trackers framed 2025 as a steady cool‑down: nonfarm payroll gains slowed markedly by late summer, unemployment drifted in the low‑4s, and wage growth stabilized near 3.8% year‑over‑year Crypto.com.
  • Longer‑run context: BLS research flagged that employment growth continued to slow through 2024, setting the tone for a softer expansion phase into 2025–2026 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Inflation and consumer spending

  • Latest PCE read: BEA data (released late due to the shutdown) showed September PCE inflation at 2.79% year‑over‑year, with core PCE easing slightly, reflecting mixed but generally moderating price pressures econsnapshot.com.
  • Spending pulse: Real consumer spending stalled in September, signaling stretched households as inflation lingers and financial conditions remain tighter than pre‑pandemic norms Bloomberg.
  • Sentiment and expectations: The NY Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations reported steady inflation expectations across horizons but more negative views of personal finances, while University of Michigan readings improved modestly from near‑historic lows as price relief hopes rose FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK Investopedia.
  • Holiday behavior: Black Friday/Thanksgiving data hit record online sales, but underlying metrics suggest volume softness and higher average prices, implying inflation‑driven revenue rather than robust unit demand; consumers are pragmatic—trading down yet willing to splurge selectively Newsweek McKinsey & Company.

Midwest U.S. regional trends

  • Labor and prices: Midwest unemployment hovered around 4.1–4.2% through mid‑2025, with CPI‑U 12‑month changes ranging roughly 2.6–3.1%—a picture of modest slack and easing inflation relative to peaks U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
  • Macro footing: Regional analysis points to continued but slower expansion in 2025, with all Census regions experiencing decelerating job growth and slightly higher unemployment versus 2024, yet still resilient by historical standards spglobal.com.
  • Chicago Fed perspective: The Seventh District (core Midwest) shows weakening labor indicators, inflation above target, and policy balancing—mid‑cycle characteristics that translate locally into subdued hiring and careful capital investment College of LSA.

What this means for decisions now

  • Financing: A cautiously easing rate path supports refinancing and new debt formation but expect conservative lender spreads and tighter debt service coverage tests until disinflation is clearer CNBC Federal Reserve Board.
  • Hiring: Plan for slower net headcount growth, heightened selectivity, and normalization of wage pressures; prepare contingency staffing models for sector‑specific shocks (manufacturing, logistics) Plastics Today LinkedIn.
  • Demand planning: Budget for steady‑to‑soft real consumption, with product mix shifting to value tiers and occasional small‑ticket splurges; emphasize pricing discipline and margin protection Bloomberg McKinsey & Company.
  • Midwest execution: Prioritize resilient sectors (healthcare, advanced manufacturing niches, logistics nodes), and stress‑test projects for moderate demand and longer absorption windows; labor availability is stable but not loosening dramatically U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics spglobal.com College of LSA.

Sources: CNBC CBS News Federal Reserve Board Federal Reserve Board U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics PlasticsToday LinkedIn Crypto.com Bloomberg econsnapshot.com FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK Investopedia Newsweek U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics spglobal.com College of LSA

National housing trends

  • Price growth cooling: National home price growth decelerated through 2025, from 3.4% YOY in January to 1.1% by October—the softest pace since the early 2010s. Price declines spread to 32 of the 100 largest metros by October, marking broad-based moderation and greater regional divergence cotality.com bdmag.com.
  • Market dynamics: Inventory has been building even into late year, while mortgage rates hovering near the low-6% range are drawing some buyers back despite record holiday delistings. This mix is creating a more balanced—though still cautious—market Realtor.com.
  • Regional variability: Several large metros turned negative YOY in 2025, while more affordable markets held modest gains, underscoring the need for hyper-local comps and underwriting that accounts for shifting demand corridors cotality.com bdmag.com.

Housing affordability

  • Current strain: Roughly three-quarters of homes are unaffordable to the typical U.S. household by the 30%-of-income benchmark, reflecting the persistent gap between prices, rates, and incomes CBS News.
  • Path to relief: The Fed’s recent rate cuts to a 3.5–3.75% range may not translate quickly into deep mortgage-rate declines, and housing “will be a problem” absent stronger disinflation or income gains. Affordability could improve if price growth remains slow and wages rise, but the near-term path is incremental RealEstateNews.com.
  • Buyer behavior: With average home prices still above $500,000 nationally, buyers are price-sensitive and selective, favoring value segments and delaying purchases where possible CBS News.

Regional snapshot: Midwest U.S.

  • Seller positioning: Midwest markets are seeing comparatively favorable conditions for sellers in 2025, bucking coastal softness with steadier demand and affordability advantages. This has translated into pockets of resilience across the region MSN.
  • Activity outlook: As inventory normalizes and rates stabilize, expect balanced conditions—fewer bidding wars than 2021–2022, but solid absorption in value-tier SFR and well-located infill. Sun Belt momentum is stronger overall, yet Midwest fundamentals (jobs base, relative affordability) support selective appreciation and attractive cash-on-cash in workforce segments Nasdaq MSN.
  • Product focus: Build-to-rent and attainable SFR near logistics/manufacturing corridors, small-lot infill within transit-accessible submarkets, and renovation plays where price-to-rent ratios remain favorable are positioned to outperform (zoning-dependent). No single Midwest metro dominates; performance is highly submarket-specific MSN.

Sources: cotality.com bdmag.com Realtor.com (prices, inventory, weekly trends) CBS News (affordability) RealEstateNews.com (Fed/housing outlook) MSN (Midwest seller strength)