Author: Larry Gilmore Published: 09/12/2025 ClearBlu Group
Economic Overview
Federal Reserve Outlook
- Rate Cut Expected: The Fed is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its September 16–17 meeting, with a 90% probability priced in by markets.
- Why It Matters: A weakening labor market and modest inflation give the Fed room to stimulate demand. This could ease borrowing costs for short-term credit and potentially improve loan origination velocity.
Labor Market Signals
- Job Growth Slows: August saw just 22,000 new jobs, missing forecasts by a wide margin.
- Unemployment Rises: The rate ticked up to 4.3%, the highest in four years.
- Revised Data: The Bureau of Labor Statistics revised job growth down by 911,000 for the past year, signaling deeper structural weakness.
Inflation & Consumer Spending
- Inflation Rate: CPI rose 2.9% YoY in August; Core CPI held at 3.1%.
- Consumer Sentiment: Dropped to 55.4, lowest since May, with 65% of Americans expecting higher unemployment in the next 12 months.
- Spending Trends: Consumers are cutting back on dining, travel, and discretionary purchases amid rising costs and economic uncertainty.
Global Trends
- China: GDP grew 5.2% YoY in Q2, but deflationary pressures loom in tech and EV sectors. Europe: Inflation remains elevated; wildfires and energy volatility are straining recovery.
- Trade Tensions: U.S. tariffs on India and EU goods are reshaping global supply chains and investment flows.
Strategic Partner Spotlight
Terrance D. Watkins
Large-Scale Multifamily Lending
ClearBlu Capital is proud to collaborate with Terrance D. Watkins, a nationally respected leader in multifamily and healthcare finance, as a strategic partner in advancing large-scale multifamily lending solutions across the country.
With over 29 years of experience in commercial real estate finance, Terrance brings unmatched expertise in originating HUD and USDA-insured mortgages for multifamily and healthcare developments. His career spans pivotal roles at Centennial Mortgage, Prudential Huntoon Paige, and the Illinois Housing Development Authority, where he underwrote complex affordable housing transactions using LIHTCs, tax-exempt bonds, and blended capital stacks.
Terrance’s track record includes:
- Originating one of the first RAD transactions in Pana, IL
- Structuring high-impact deals for senior and affordable housing communities
- Navigating federal lending programs with precision and agility
As a graduate of Iowa State University’s Community and Regional Planning program, Terrance shares ClearBlu’s commitment to equitable growth, housing innovation, and mission-aligned capital deployment.
“Terrance is more than a lender—he’s a systems thinker and policy-savvy strategist. His ability to align public financing tools with private capital makes him an invaluable partner in scaling ClearBlu’s multifamily platform.” — Larry Gilmore, Founder & Managing Director
Together, ClearBlu and Terrance Watkins are unlocking new pathways for developers, municipalities, and mission-driven investors to build resilient, inclusive housing ecosystems nationwide.
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